Is inflation going to keep falling this year?

Leans constructive overall. It credits goods disinflation remains broad and wage growth is gradually normalizing, but keeps a clear check on services ex-housing remains sticky before getting more positive. On balance it reads this as a 54% conviction call that rewards patience while faster shelter cooling plays out.

Takes the most measured view of the six. It weights services ex-housing remains sticky and commodity and energy shocks possible heavily, wanting confirmation from faster shelter cooling before giving full credit to goods disinflation remains broad. That caution is what lands it at 49%, slightly below the more optimistic models.

Builds its base case around wage growth is gradually normalizing. It sees faster shelter cooling and services deceleration compounding over time and treats services ex-housing remains sticky as a manageable headwind rather than a structural problem, which supports its 47% stance.

Most aggressive read of the group. It front-runs faster shelter cooling, argues the market is underpricing goods disinflation remains broad, and largely shrugs off services ex-housing remains sticky as short-term noise. That conviction is why it sits at 58%, the high end of the range.

Balances goods disinflation remains broad against commodity and energy shocks possible, landing in the middle of the pack. It flags energy spike as the single most important thing to monitor from here, and only commits to a 49% call until that risk resolves.

Anchors on aggregated analyst and source coverage, which currently clusters near 53%. It highlights goods disinflation remains broad as the most-cited tailwind and services ex-housing remains sticky as the most-cited concern, settling on a 54% read in line with the broader consensus.