Is a recession coming this year?

Leans constructive overall. It credits resilient labor market and consumer spending and inflation falling without a sharp slowdown, but keeps a clear check on lagged effects of past rate hikes before getting more positive. On balance it reads this as a 41% conviction call that rewards patience while continued soft-landing data plays out.

Takes the most measured view of the six. It weights lagged effects of past rate hikes and cracks in lower-income consumers and credit heavily, wanting confirmation from continued soft-landing data before giving full credit to resilient labor market and consumer spending. That caution is what lands it at 39%, slightly below the more optimistic models.

Builds its base case around inflation falling without a sharp slowdown. It sees continued soft-landing data and rate cuts compounding over time and treats lagged effects of past rate hikes as a manageable headwind rather than a structural problem, which supports its 38% stance.

Most aggressive read of the group. It front-runs continued soft-landing data, argues the market is underpricing resilient labor market and consumer spending, and largely shrugs off lagged effects of past rate hikes as short-term noise. That conviction is why it sits at 44%, the high end of the range.

Balances resilient labor market and consumer spending against cracks in lower-income consumers and credit, landing in the middle of the pack. It flags credit-cycle deterioration as the single most important thing to monitor from here, and only commits to a 37% call until that risk resolves.

Anchors on aggregated analyst and source coverage, which currently clusters near 38%. It highlights resilient labor market and consumer spending as the most-cited tailwind and lagged effects of past rate hikes as the most-cited concern, settling on a 40% read in line with the broader consensus.