Is the housing market going to crash this year?

Leans constructive overall. It credits chronic undersupply of homes and most owners hold low fixed-rate mortgages, but keeps a clear check on affordability is near multi-decade lows before getting more positive. On balance it reads this as a 40% conviction call that rewards patience while mortgage rates falling plays out.

Takes the most measured view of the six. It weights affordability is near multi-decade lows and transaction volumes are depressed heavily, wanting confirmation from mortgage rates falling before giving full credit to chronic undersupply of homes. That caution is what lands it at 29%, slightly below the more optimistic models.

Builds its base case around most owners hold low fixed-rate mortgages. It sees mortgage rates falling and inventory normalization compounding over time and treats affordability is near multi-decade lows as a manageable headwind rather than a structural problem, which supports its 40% stance.

Most aggressive read of the group. It front-runs mortgage rates falling, argues the market is underpricing chronic undersupply of homes, and largely shrugs off affordability is near multi-decade lows as short-term noise. That conviction is why it sits at 34%, the high end of the range.

Balances chronic undersupply of homes against transaction volumes are depressed, landing in the middle of the pack. It flags sharp unemployment rise as the single most important thing to monitor from here, and only commits to a 35% call until that risk resolves.

Anchors on aggregated analyst and source coverage, which currently clusters near 33%. It highlights chronic undersupply of homes as the most-cited tailwind and affordability is near multi-decade lows as the most-cited concern, settling on a 41% read in line with the broader consensus.