Is the Fed going to cut interest rates this year?

Leans constructive overall. It credits cooling inflation prints support easing and softening labor-market data, but keeps a clear check on sticky services inflation could delay cuts before getting more positive. On balance it reads this as a 64% conviction call that rewards patience while continued disinflation plays out.

Takes the most measured view of the six. It weights sticky services inflation could delay cuts and a resilient economy reduces urgency heavily, wanting confirmation from continued disinflation before giving full credit to cooling inflation prints support easing. That caution is what lands it at 74%, slightly below the more optimistic models.

Builds its base case around softening labor-market data. It sees continued disinflation and weaker employment compounding over time and treats sticky services inflation could delay cuts as a manageable headwind rather than a structural problem, which supports its 71% stance.

Most aggressive read of the group. It front-runs continued disinflation, argues the market is underpricing cooling inflation prints support easing, and largely shrugs off sticky services inflation could delay cuts as short-term noise. That conviction is why it sits at 75%, the high end of the range.

Balances cooling inflation prints support easing against a resilient economy reduces urgency, landing in the middle of the pack. It flags inflation re-acceleration as the single most important thing to monitor from here, and only commits to a 70% call until that risk resolves.

Anchors on aggregated analyst and source coverage, which currently clusters near 68%. It highlights cooling inflation prints support easing as the most-cited tailwind and sticky services inflation could delay cuts as the most-cited concern, settling on a 63% read in line with the broader consensus.