Consensus Shifts
What changed, why it changed, and whether you should care. A real-time view of how AI consensus is moving across every tracked question.
Biggest Movers Today
Largest 24-hour score changes
- 49% → 41%-8
What would make it more likely that ethereum will hit $10,000 in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 71% → 79%+8
What would make it less likely that oil will trade above $100 a barrel in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 80% → 72%-8
What would make it less likely that nvidia will hit a new all-time high in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 48% → 56%+8
What would make it less likely that gold will trade above $3,500 an ounce in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 57% → 49%-8
What could make TSM stock go higher?
Investing
- 43% → 50%+7
Why might the market be wrong about whether the US will enter a recession in 2026?
Prediction Market
Biggest Movers This Week
Largest 7-day score changes
- 49% → 41%-8
What would make it more likely that ethereum will hit $10,000 in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 71% → 79%+8
What would make it less likely that oil will trade above $100 a barrel in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 80% → 72%-8
What would make it less likely that nvidia will hit a new all-time high in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 48% → 56%+8
What would make it less likely that gold will trade above $3,500 an ounce in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 57% → 49%-8
What could make TSM stock go higher?
Investing
- 43% → 50%+7
Why might the market be wrong about whether the US will enter a recession in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 65% → 58%-7
Why might the market be wrong about whether tikTok will be banned in the US in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 61% → 54%-7
Why might the market be wrong about whether ethereum will hit $10,000 in 2026?
Prediction Market
Confidence Rising
Models converging — answers more certain
- +6
Will Ethereum go higher this year?
Investing
- +6
Will Chainlink go higher this year?
Investing
- +6
What would make it more likely that there will be a US government shutdown in 2026?
Prediction Market
- +6
What could make XOM stock go higher?
Investing
- +5
What would make it more likely that the US will enter a recession in 2026?
Prediction Market
- +5
What would make it more likely that openAI will file to go public in 2026?
Prediction Market
Confidence Falling
Models diverging — answers less certain
- -6
Will Litecoin go higher this year?
Investing
- -6
What could make SLB stock go higher?
Investing
- -5
Will Bitcoin hit $200k?
Prediction Market
- -5
What would make it more likely that tikTok will be banned in the US in 2026?
Prediction Market
- -5
What would make it less likely that oil will trade above $100 a barrel in 2026?
Prediction Market
- -5
What would make it less likely that aGI will be achieved by 2030?
Prediction Market
New AI Disagreements
Model agreement recently declined
- -6
Will Litecoin go higher this year?
Investing
- -6
What could make SLB stock go higher?
Investing
- -5
Will Bitcoin hit $200k?
Prediction Market
- -5
What would make it more likely that tikTok will be banned in the US in 2026?
Prediction Market
- -5
What would make it less likely that oil will trade above $100 a barrel in 2026?
Prediction Market
- -5
What would make it less likely that aGI will be achieved by 2030?
Prediction Market
Most Followed Questions
What people are tracking
Recently Updated
Newest activity
- 49% → 41%-8
What would make it more likely that ethereum will hit $10,000 in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 71% → 79%+8
What would make it less likely that oil will trade above $100 a barrel in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 80% → 72%-8
What would make it less likely that nvidia will hit a new all-time high in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 48% → 56%+8
What would make it less likely that gold will trade above $3,500 an ounce in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 57% → 49%-8
What could make TSM stock go higher?
Investing
- 43% → 50%+7
Why might the market be wrong about whether the US will enter a recession in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 65% → 58%-7
Why might the market be wrong about whether tikTok will be banned in the US in 2026?
Prediction Market
- 61% → 54%-7
Why might the market be wrong about whether ethereum will hit $10,000 in 2026?
Prediction Market
Latest Alert Events
Conditions that fired across questions
Consensus moved 5+
Will Bitcoin reach $200k this year?
Consensus rose 7 points (49% → 56%).
New hallucination detected
Will Bitcoin reach $200k this year?
Potential hallucinations increased from 0 to 1.
AI disagreement decreased
Will Bitcoin reach $200k this year?
Models converged (spread 19 → 13).
Consensus moved 5+
Will the Fed cut rates this year?
Consensus fell 7 points (77% → 70%).
Consensus moved 10+
Will GPT-6 launch this year?
Consensus rose 11 points (59% → 70%).
Consensus moved 5+
Will Tesla hit $500 this year?
Consensus fell 8 points (57% → 49%).
AI disagreement increased
Will a major AI lab go public this year?
Model disagreement widened (spread 8 → 14).
Consensus moved 5+
Should I buy Tesla stock right now?
Consensus fell 5 points (54% → 49%).
Consensus moved 5+
Should I buy Nvidia stock right now?
Consensus rose 7 points (56% → 63%).
New hallucination detected
Will the S&P 500 hit a new record high this year?
Potential hallucinations increased from 0 to 1.
Consensus moved 10+
Is now a good time to buy long-term bonds?
Consensus rose 10 points (46% → 56%).