Is now a good time to buy long-term bonds?

Leans constructive overall. It credits starting yields are attractive versus the last decade and rate cuts would boost long-bond prices, but keeps a clear check on heavy treasury issuance pressures long yields before getting more positive. On balance it reads this as a 57% conviction call that rewards patience while confirmed rate cuts plays out.

Takes the most measured view of the six. It weights heavy treasury issuance pressures long yields and sticky inflation could keep rates higher heavily, wanting confirmation from confirmed rate cuts before giving full credit to starting yields are attractive versus the last decade. That caution is what lands it at 49%, slightly below the more optimistic models.

Builds its base case around rate cuts would boost long-bond prices. It sees confirmed rate cuts and disinflation surprises compounding over time and treats heavy treasury issuance pressures long yields as a manageable headwind rather than a structural problem, which supports its 51% stance.

Most aggressive read of the group. It front-runs confirmed rate cuts, argues the market is underpricing starting yields are attractive versus the last decade, and largely shrugs off heavy treasury issuance pressures long yields as short-term noise. That conviction is why it sits at 56%, the high end of the range.

Balances starting yields are attractive versus the last decade against sticky inflation could keep rates higher, landing in the middle of the pack. It flags fiscal-supply shock as the single most important thing to monitor from here, and only commits to a 52% call until that risk resolves.

Anchors on aggregated analyst and source coverage, which currently clusters near 55%. It highlights starting yields are attractive versus the last decade as the most-cited tailwind and heavy treasury issuance pressures long yields as the most-cited concern, settling on a 51% read in line with the broader consensus.