Will a major AI lab go public this year?
Current AI consensus 43% · confidence medium · last updated 2026-08-14
This week
Stable
Now at 43%
This month
Stable
Now at 43%
Evidence
14
1 contradictions · 1 flags
Answer stability
Stable
Low likelihood of a meaningful change soon. The evidence behind this answer is settled.
AI Consensus Trend
Flat pts over window
Not enough history yet.
Snapshot: consensus is holding steady — the curve shows sentiment stable over this window.
Model Divergence
Current spread 0 pts — models agree
Not enough history yet.
Snapshot: the curves are tightly clustered — the models broadly agree (0 pts apart).
Source Quality
Weak evidenceWhy we trust — or question — this answer, based on the underlying evidence.
- Moderate model disagreement (14-pt spread)
- Corroborated by 14 sources
- 1 contradiction between sources
- 1 accuracy flag detected
Decision Timeline
Replay how this decision evolved — each change explains why the answer moved.
Mar 26, 2026
Tracking began · Consensus 51%
Apr 3, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Apr 6, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Apr 8, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Apr 11, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Apr 18, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Apr 21, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Apr 21, 2026
AI disagreement eased
The models resolved earlier contradictions and are now more aligned.
Apr 24, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Apr 27, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 4, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
May 7, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
May 10, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
May 13, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
May 20, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 23, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 25, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 28, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 31, 2026
AI disagreement increased
The models began contradicting each other on more points — a sign to verify before relying on the answer.
Jun 5, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Jun 8, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Jun 10, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Jun 13, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Jun 15, 2026
1 new unsupported claim flagged
One or more models made claims the others couldn't support — possible hallucinations worth checking.
Jun 20, 2026
Confidence weakened
Confidence shifted from high to medium as the spread between models widened.
Jun 20, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Jun 23, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Jun 24, 2026
AI disagreement increased
Model disagreement widened (spread 8 → 14).
Aug 14, 2026
Today · Consensus 43%
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