Will the Fed cut rates this year?
Current AI consensus 70% · confidence high · last updated 2026-08-14
This week
Stable
Now at 70%
This month
Stable
Now at 70%
Evidence
11
1 contradictions · 0 flags
Answer stability
Stable
Low likelihood of a meaningful change soon. The evidence behind this answer is settled.
AI Consensus Trend
Flat pts over window
Not enough history yet.
Snapshot: consensus is holding steady — the curve shows sentiment stable over this window.
Model Divergence
Current spread 0 pts — models agree
Not enough history yet.
Snapshot: the curves are tightly clustered — the models broadly agree (0 pts apart).
Source Quality
Moderate evidenceWhy we trust — or question — this answer, based on the underlying evidence.
- Strong agreement across all AI models
- Corroborated by 11 sources
- High recorded confidence
- 1 contradiction between sources
Decision Timeline
Replay how this decision evolved — each change explains why the answer moved.
Mar 26, 2026
Tracking began · Consensus 82%
Apr 3, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Apr 6, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Apr 8, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Apr 11, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Apr 18, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Apr 20, 2026
AI disagreement eased
The models resolved earlier contradictions and are now more aligned.
Apr 21, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Apr 24, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Apr 27, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 4, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
May 7, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
May 10, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
May 13, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
May 20, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 23, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 25, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
May 28, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Jun 3, 2026
AI disagreement increased
The models began contradicting each other on more points — a sign to verify before relying on the answer.
Jun 5, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Jun 8, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Jun 10, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Jun 13, 2026
1 supporting source added
New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.
Jun 20, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Jun 23, 2026
1 supporting source removed
Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.
Jun 24, 2026
Consensus moved 5+
Consensus fell 7 points (77% → 70%).
Aug 14, 2026
Today · Consensus 70%
Compare against market odds
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