Will Bitcoin reach $200k this year?

Why we trust — or question — this answer, based on the underlying evidence.

• Moderate model disagreement (13-pt spread)
• Corroborated by 16 sources
• 1 contradiction between sources
• 1 accuracy flag detected

Replay how this decision evolved — each change explains why the answer moved.

1. Mar 26, 2026

   Tracking began · Consensus 47%

2. Mar 27, 2026

   Confidence strengthened

   Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

3. Mar 29, 2026

   1 new unsupported claim flagged

   One or more models made claims the others couldn't support — possible hallucinations worth checking.

4. Apr 1, 2026

   Confidence weakened

   Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

5. Apr 3, 2026

   1 supporting source added

   New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

6. Apr 6, 2026

   1 supporting source added

   New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

7. Apr 7, 2026

   Confidence strengthened

   Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

8. Apr 8, 2026

   1 supporting source added

   New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

9. Apr 11, 2026

   1 supporting source added

   New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

10. Apr 12, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

11. Apr 13, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

12. Apr 16, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

13. Apr 17, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

14. Apr 18, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

15. Apr 20, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

16. Apr 21, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

17. Apr 21, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

18. Apr 22, 2026

    AI disagreement eased

    The models resolved earlier contradictions and are now more aligned.

19. Apr 24, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

20. Apr 27, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

21. Apr 27, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

22. May 1, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

23. May 4, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

24. May 4, 2026

    AI disagreement eased

    The models resolved earlier contradictions and are now more aligned.

25. May 7, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

26. May 7, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

27. May 8, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

28. May 10, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

29. May 11, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

30. May 12, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

31. May 13, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

32. May 15, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

33. May 16, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

34. May 20, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

35. May 21, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

36. May 21, 2026

    AI disagreement increased

    The models began contradicting each other on more points — a sign to verify before relying on the answer.

37. May 23, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

38. May 25, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

39. May 27, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

40. May 28, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

41. Jun 1, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

42. Jun 1, 2026

    AI disagreement increased

    The models began contradicting each other on more points — a sign to verify before relying on the answer.

43. Jun 2, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

44. Jun 5, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

45. Jun 5, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

46. Jun 6, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

47. Jun 8, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

48. Jun 9, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from medium to low as the spread between models widened.

49. Jun 10, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

50. Jun 11, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from low to medium as the spread between models narrowed.

51. Jun 13, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

52. Jun 19, 2026

    1 new unsupported claim flagged

    One or more models made claims the others couldn't support — possible hallucinations worth checking.

53. Jun 20, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

54. Jun 23, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

55. Jun 24, 2026

    AI disagreement eased

    The models resolved earlier contradictions and are now more aligned.

56. Jun 24, 2026

    AI disagreement decreased

    Models converged (spread 19 → 13).

57. Jun 24, 2026

    New hallucination detected

    Potential hallucinations increased from 0 to 1.

58. Jun 24, 2026

    Consensus moved 5+

    Consensus rose 7 points (49% → 56%).

59. Aug 14, 2026

    Today · Consensus 56%