Is now a good time to buy long-term bonds?

Why we trust — or question — this answer, based on the underlying evidence.

• Strong agreement across all AI models
• Corroborated by 9 sources
• High recorded confidence
• 1 contradiction between sources
• 1 accuracy flag detected

Replay how this decision evolved — each change explains why the answer moved.

1. Mar 26, 2026

   Tracking began · Consensus 40%

2. Mar 31, 2026

   AI disagreement increased

   The models began contradicting each other on more points — a sign to verify before relying on the answer.

3. Apr 1, 2026

   Confidence weakened

   Confidence shifted from high to medium as the spread between models widened.

4. Apr 2, 2026

   Confidence strengthened

   Confidence shifted from medium to high as the spread between models narrowed.

5. Apr 3, 2026

   1 supporting source added

   New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

6. Apr 6, 2026

   1 supporting source added

   New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

7. Apr 7, 2026

   AI disagreement eased

   The models resolved earlier contradictions and are now more aligned.

8. Apr 8, 2026

   1 supporting source added

   New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

9. Apr 11, 2026

   1 supporting source added

   New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

10. Apr 15, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from high to medium as the spread between models widened.

11. Apr 16, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from medium to high as the spread between models narrowed.

12. Apr 18, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

13. Apr 21, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

14. Apr 22, 2026

    AI disagreement eased

    The models resolved earlier contradictions and are now more aligned.

15. Apr 24, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

16. Apr 27, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

17. Apr 29, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from high to medium as the spread between models widened.

18. Apr 30, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from medium to high as the spread between models narrowed.

19. May 4, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

20. May 7, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

21. May 8, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from high to medium as the spread between models widened.

22. May 9, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from medium to high as the spread between models narrowed.

23. May 10, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

24. May 13, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from high to medium as the spread between models widened.

25. May 13, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

26. May 14, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from medium to high as the spread between models narrowed.

27. May 17, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from high to medium as the spread between models widened.

28. May 18, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from medium to high as the spread between models narrowed.

29. May 20, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

30. May 23, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

31. May 25, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

32. May 25, 2026

    AI disagreement increased

    The models began contradicting each other on more points — a sign to verify before relying on the answer.

33. May 28, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

34. Jun 4, 2026

    Confidence weakened

    Confidence shifted from high to medium as the spread between models widened.

35. Jun 5, 2026

    Confidence strengthened

    Confidence shifted from medium to high as the spread between models narrowed.

36. Jun 5, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

37. Jun 8, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

38. Jun 8, 2026

    AI disagreement increased

    The models began contradicting each other on more points — a sign to verify before relying on the answer.

39. Jun 10, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

40. Jun 13, 2026

    1 supporting source added

    New evidence appeared to back the answer, strengthening the basis for the conclusion.

41. Jun 13, 2026

    1 new unsupported claim flagged

    One or more models made claims the others couldn't support — possible hallucinations worth checking.

42. Jun 16, 2026

    AI disagreement eased

    The models resolved earlier contradictions and are now more aligned.

43. Jun 20, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

44. Jun 23, 2026

    1 supporting source removed

    Previously cited evidence is no longer available, weakening the support behind the answer.

45. Jun 24, 2026

    Consensus moved 10+

    Consensus rose 10 points (46% → 56%).

46. Aug 14, 2026

    Today · Consensus 56%